Guerre en Iran : la fin d’un mythe stratégique ?
The American and Israeli armies launched an attack on Iran on Saturday. Initially, the results were spectacular, notably the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But after more than ten days of bombing, the outcome is more mixed. Today, some believe the United States is looking for a way out to avoid getting bogged down. Donald Trump has even declared that the war will soon end.
Economist Magaye Gaye has drawn a number of conclusions which lead him to say that "we may be witnessing a recomposition of military certainties in the Middle East and, beyond, in the global balance of power."
According to Gaye, the Americans and Israelis believed they were embarking on a blitzkrieg, ignoring the complexity of the situation on the ground. "Several indicators suggest that the United States underestimated both Tehran's actual firepower and the strategic depth of that state." The proof, he believes, lies in their conviction that simply decapitating the regime would be enough to dismantle the state structure.
Today, Magaye Gaye believes, the United States seems to want to withdraw from the conflict and he puts forward arguments that are economic, political, military and symbolic.
On the military front, Trump and Netanyahu claimed, after the Twelve Day War, to have destroyed the bulk of Iran's nuclear capabilities. Yet, this same argument is being used to justify attacking Tehran again. And so far, there is no indication of success for the two allies. "Despite the intensity of the military operations, several observers believe that Iran has not yet mobilized its full military capabilities."
In truth, the economist argues, forty years of confrontation with the United States have prepared Iran to better resist. “…it is plausible that some capabilities remain poorly understood or underestimated.” Today, Iran is even equipping itself to dictate the pace on two strategic issues: the security of the Strait of Hormuz and the balance of power in the Middle East.
The economic and political consequences
This is where symbolic reason comes in. For a long time, the Americans and Israelis cultivated an image of themselves as superpowers capable of dictating the course of the Middle East without repercussions. By confronting both of these powers and their allies in the region, Iran is cracking a strategic myth: "the invulnerability of Western defense systems and their ability to quickly neutralize any regional power."
It is worth recalling that Iranian strikes have hit American bases in the region, Israeli territory and some strategic installations in neighboring countries allied with the United States.
Economically, the consequences could be severe for the entire global economy, particularly with rising oil prices and uncertainties surrounding maritime transport. Hence the political dimension for the Trump administration, which is approaching the midterm elections. Magaye Gaye believes that inflation "could become a determining factor in American public opinion."
For all these reasons, the United States seems to be looking for a way out of this war, especially since the much-hoped-for internal uprising has not materialized.
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