Vie chère : Pourquoi les prix ne baissent jamais vraiment au Sénégal ? Le mystère de "l'effet second tour" expliqué
Inflation doesn't always stop when the initial cause disappears. A first price increase can trigger others, sometimes several months later. This is what economists call the second-round effect.
The mechanism often begins with an external shock. A rise in the price of oil, gas, shipping, or food products increases costs for businesses. These businesses then pass on part of this increase to their own selling prices.
When energy prices rise, the cost of transportation, production, logistics, and electricity also increases. A baker will pay more for flour, electricity, and transportation. A restaurant owner will see the price of food, gas, and deliveries increase. Eventually, everyone adjusts their prices.
The phenomenon can then extend to wages. When the cost of living rises sharply, employees seek to protect their purchasing power by demanding pay increases. Companies that grant these increases see their expenses rise and may be tempted to raise their prices again.
This is how an initial increase in fuel or food prices can eventually spread throughout the entire economy. Even if oil or wheat prices subsequently fall, some prices continue to rise because wages, rents, transportation costs, or production costs have already been adjusted.
This situation has been observed in many countries since the start of the war in Ukraine. In 2022 and 2023, the rise in energy, grain, and maritime freight prices initially affected a few specific products. It then gradually spread to other sectors such as transportation, restaurants, housing, and certain services.
In the WAEMU, second-round effects are generally more moderate than in other regions of the world, particularly because wages are less indexed to inflation. However, they do exist. A rise in fuel or transportation prices can ultimately affect rents, food markets, distribution costs, and the prices of urban services.
This is why central banks monitor these mechanisms so closely. Inflation linked to a one-off shock can be easier to absorb. However, when price increases begin to spread throughout the economy, they become much more difficult to curb.
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