Attempted coup or propaganda? The "confessions" of civilians and military personnel regarding their participation in a project to destabilize the military junta in Burkina Faso, broadcast for several days on state television, are struggling to convince analysts and observers who point to "areas of uncertainty."

Last week, the Burkinabe junta announced that it had thwarted for the "umpteenth time" an "attempt at destabilization" aimed at eliminating its leader, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, accusing former Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba of being the mastermind.

Mr. Damiba seized power in January 2022 in a coup against President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, then was ousted eight months later in a second coup orchestrated by Captain Traoré, who is currently in power.

On January 3, "an action to destabilize the country was planned (...) through a series of targeted assassinations of civilian and military authorities, beginning with the neutralization of comrade Captain Ibrahim Traoré," Security Minister Mahamadou Sana stated on state television a few days after that date.

In addition to the accusations against former Lieutenant-Colonel Damiba, in exile in Togo, the minister also targeted Ivory Coast - a neighbouring country with which Burkina Faso maintains frosty relations - which he accused of having financed the alleged operation, including a transaction estimated at 70 million CFA francs (106,000 euros).

- "Scenarios that are so implausible" -

For four days, these allegations were supported by a series of "confessions" from alleged accomplices, broadcast every evening on state television, who all claimed to have acted on the instructions of Mr. Damiba.

The first, Mady Sakandé, a man in his sixties described as a "businessman" and a "key player", said he went to Ivory Coast to recover the 70 million CFA francs.

Then a soldier, Captain Prosper Couldiati, claimed that his mission was to "cut off the head" of the commander of the Saponé drone base (30 km south of Ouagadougou) in order to prevent any air intervention.

Another, Sergeant Major Salfo Yalwéogo, stationed with the Republican Guard, said he was contacted by Mr. Damiba to "mobilize men to carry out a coup d'état", before being arrested a few days later with "two PKMS rifles and several crates of ammunition".

Since seizing power in this country plagued by jihadist violence, the junta has repeatedly claimed to have thwarted plots aimed at overthrowing it.

"Each time, they announce that they have foiled a coup, with scenarios that are as improbable as each other. What has been done about it? No trial, no conviction," points out a Burkinabe journalist and analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, in a country where voices critical of the junta are heavily repressed.

"This time, it's a low-budget coup, with 70 million CFA francs coming from Ivory Coast, whereas in the past we've seen destabilization projects financed with more than 5 billion. How can a trader move such an amount, deceiving the vigilance of the security forces of a country at war? These are areas of uncertainty that remain," adds the journalist.

- "Revive support" for the junta -

In April 2025, Burkina Faso had already accused Ivory Coast and arrested about ten officers and non-commissioned officers.

The Ivorian authorities have always denied these accusations.

This is not the first time Mr. Damiba has been implicated by the Ouagadougou regime: in September 2024, he was presented as the head of the "military aspect of a vast conspiracy".

"We have a plot foiled almost every four to six months. And each time, it is an opportunity to mobilize and revive support for the head of state. But be careful because by crying wolf too often, we end up not believing it anymore," another Burkinabe analyst points out under the cover of anonymity.

"Upon the announcement of this attempt at destabilization, supporters of the junta gathered to support the regime. But it must be admitted that it is no longer the same fervor as before," says a resident of Ouagadougou.

In 2025, the junta appropriated images of celebrities such as singer Beyoncé and Pope Leo XIV during a vast disinformation campaign to glorify Captain Traoré, far from the jihadist violence that is devastating his country and the repression of dissenting voices.

"Disinformation is omnipresent in Burkina Faso and the team around Captain Traoré is particularly good at spreading rumors and fake news that can support the regime," says Nina Wilén, director of the Africa program at the Egmont Institute for International Relations, a Belgian think tank.

"This narrative about a failed coup seems very unlikely," she concluded.