Hidden debt or misreporting? Public debt or central government debt? Off-balance-sheet debt or treasury operations? Throughout 2025, the issue of Senegal's public debt was often approached from a binary perspective, where the interpretation of facts depended more on political positions than on rigorous economic analysis. Indeed, most audit reports were never made available to the general public, including scientists and professionals in the field.

Meanwhile, it is clear that the Senegalese economy has deteriorated significantly. Several macroeconomic indicators converge to show that in 2025 the country came close to a breaking point, marked in particular by a decline in confidence and a slowdown in economic activity. At the heart of this dynamic lies a central element: the revision of the public debt, or the revelation of a "hidden debt."

The year 2025 was indeed the year in which the Court of Auditors certified a major revision of Senegal's public debt, increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 74.4% to 99.7% for 2023. This reassessment was subsequently amplified by the audit conducted by Forvis Mazars, which raised the ratio to 111.0%, and then to 118.8% for 2024. These revisions have profoundly affected Senegal's financial credibility on the international stage. For example, the rating agency Moody's downgraded the country's sovereign rating to Caa1 with a negative outlook, signaling a very high credit risk. This decline is all the more concerning as it brings Senegal, rated Ba3 in 2022, to a lower risk level than in 2011, when the rating was already at B1. In just a few months, the country has thus erased more than a decade of efforts in terms of financial credibility.

The direct consequence of this loss of confidence was the near-total closure of Senegal's access to international financial markets and the suspension of its program with the IMF. The state was forced to turn massively to the regional financial market, characterized by shorter maturities and higher interest rates. This choice, imposed by circumstances, increases the cost of debt, raises refinancing risks, and makes the economy more vulnerable to liquidity shocks. The country is thus caught in a vicious cycle where the erosion of confidence itself fuels financial fragility.

Adding to this situation is a growing lack of transparency surrounding the debt trajectory. The public debt statistical bulletin, which previously allowed citizens to understand the structure and evolution of the debt, was not published throughout 2025. At the same time, the public regularly receives announcements of successful borrowing operations, sometimes for amounts exceeding those initially sought. This lack of transparency fuels anxiety and reinforces a sense of incomprehension regarding the actual sustainability of the public debt.

The consequences were not limited to public finances. On the social front, 2025 was marked by a significant deterioration in the labor market. The employment rate fell to 40.5% in the third quarter of 2025, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 and 4 percentage points compared to 2023. This trend reflects the weakening of the economy's capacity to create jobs and exacerbates job insecurity, particularly among young people and workers in the informal sector.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remained persistent. In November 2025, consumer prices rose by 2.9% compared to November 2024. In a context of stagnant or even declining incomes for many households, this price increase led to a significant reduction in purchasing power.

The slowdown in activity is also visible in key sectors of the economy. In 2025, the construction sector, a traditional driver of growth and employment, recorded a 12.9% drop in revenue between the first and third quarters, compared to the same period in 2024. This contraction reflects the decline in public contracts, the shutdown of some construction sites, financing difficulties, and the drop in private investment, with cascading effects on employment and income.

At the same time, the authorities have implemented or strengthened several tax measures to increase budget revenues and finance the Economic and Social Recovery Plan. While these measures address genuine budgetary constraints, they result in increased pressure on households and risk further fueling inflation, to the detriment of purchasing power.

In this already worrying context, 2026 looks set to be just as difficult, if not more so. The 2026 Finance Bill anticipates a rise in the GDP deflator to 2%, compared to 0.9% in 2025, primarily due to the expected inflationary effects of the fiscal measures in the recovery plan, particularly the taxation of mobile money services. Inflation acts as an invisible and deeply unequal tax, as it disproportionately affects low-income households, whose income is largely devoted to basic necessities.

For the government, 2026 will not be an easy year either. Debt servicing will remain a heavy burden, forcing the authorities to frequently resort to new borrowing to meet the state's obligations. If access to international markets remains as limited as it was in 2025, Senegal will be forced to rely even more heavily on the regional market, with its high interest rates, short maturities, and a real risk of market saturation. The latest EPA, whose deadline had to be extended to secure the targeted amount, already serves as a warning sign.

To prevent the difficulties observed in 2025 from worsening in 2026, several actions are essential. Reviving the construction sector, at least by clearing the government's debt to companies in the sector, is crucial given its multiplier effects on the entire economy. Furthermore, restructuring public debt appears to be an unavoidable option for breaking the current vicious cycle. Turning to the regional market is merely a short-term solution that increases financing costs and postpones necessary adjustments. In the long run, the proliferation of loans on "unfavorable" terms will inevitably lead the country to default.

A well-managed restructuring would allow for a more sustainable trajectory by aligning the debt profile with the actual capabilities of the Senegalese economy. By extending maturities, reducing interest rates, and, where appropriate, applying haircuts to the principal, the government could free up essential fiscal space for reviving productive investment and achieving social stability. Contrary to popular belief, such an approach does not necessarily constitute an admission of failure, but can be interpreted as an act of responsibility aimed at preventing a disorderly default, which would be far more costly.

However, a credible restructuring requires a rigorous and transparent strategy. It must begin with the publication of all debt management reports and a comprehensive audit of public debt, including citizen audits, to establish an indisputable picture of the government's commitments. This transparency is essential to restoring the confidence of international partners, particularly the IMF, whose role will be crucial in guiding the process.