Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko's announcement regarding the Yakaar-Teranga gas block was presented as a major step forward. In principle, the desire for sovereignty and transparency in the management of our resources is legitimate. It is even expected.

But behind this communication, a more worrying reality must be clearly stated.

For several years, the state of Senegal, through Senelec, has been deploying a structuring plan (2020–2035) to support the country's growth: more than 1000 MW additional, a diversified energy mix, and above all a transition to gas to sustainably reduce production costs.

This plan is far from theoretical. It is essentially based on concrete projects aimed at establishing independent power producers (IPPs) and strengthening local capacities:

* new gas-fired power plants (CCGT) at Cap des Biches and Saint-Louis Gandon

* the gradual conversion of oil-fired power plants to gas (Bel Air, Contour Global)

* A new strategic 250 MW power plant at Cap des Biches, following the dismantling of units C3 and GTI

With a clear objective: to secure supply, control electricity costs and support industrialization.

Today, we must say it bluntly: this trajectory is weakened.

The announced withdrawal of Kosmos Energy from the Yakaar-Teranga project, combined with uncertainties about operating times, raises a central question: where do we really stand on gas availability?

Because without gas, the entire balance of the energy system falters. Added to this are worrying signs:

* a public debt of 48.5 billion FCFA to Senelec

* Announcements such as the “first gas” commitment in January 2025 have had little concrete impact at this stage. Senegal continues to import LNG, notably to power certain power plants, including the Karpowership floating power plant.

In this context, any renegotiation of contracts, if necessary, must be undertaken with an absolute commitment to continuity and energy security. Sovereignty cannot be defended at the price of instability.

One point, however, deserves special attention.

The hypothesis of operationalizing the Yakaar-Teranga block by Petrosen alone raises, at the end of the final investment decision (FID), a central question of financial and technical sustainability.

Depending on the development scenarios, the cumulative investment needs could reach 𝐩𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐞𝐮𝐫𝐬 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐝𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬 𝐅𝐂𝐅𝐀, 𝐦𝐨𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐭é𝐬 𝐝𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭, 𝐝𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐞𝐭 𝐝𝐞 𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐪𝐮𝐞 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫ê𝐦𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 é𝐥𝐞𝐯é𝐞𝐬.

In this context, the opportunity cost for the State becomes significant: a massive commitment to this project may limit the capacity to finance other strategic priorities.

This is not just a technical issue. It is a strategic decision.

The issue goes beyond the energy sector: it touches on the competitiveness of the economy, industrialization and the purchasing power of households.

What Senegal needs today is not just strong announcements, but visibility, coherence and transparency on its energy trajectory.

Two essential questions must mobilize all the intelligence of the country:

* Why is our model becoming less attractive to some operators, to the point of weakening their commitment?

* And above all, how can we concretely secure energy supplies in the short and medium term?

The debate must be posed above all, without posturing, with lucidity and responsibility.

𝐀𝐛𝐝𝐨𝐮 𝐋𝐚𝐡𝐚𝐝 𝐃𝐢𝐚𝐤𝐡𝐚𝐭𝐞

Strategy Consultant and Expert in Oil and Gas Energy Management