[Avis d'expert] Pétrole, gaz et mobilité électrique : le Sénégal face au virage stratégique de ses transports (Dr Ibrahima Ka)
Dr. Ibrahima KA is a Senior Lecturer in Electrical Engineering at the École Polytechnique de Thiès (EPT) in Senegal, and head of the Inter-University Master's program in Renewable Energies (MIER). Holding a doctorate in electrical engineering from the Université Grenoble Alpes, his research focuses primarily on electric mobility, power electronics, and the integration of renewable energies into transportation systems and electrical grids.
As Senegal enters a new energy era with the start of oil and gas production, another, quieter but equally strategic transition is underway: that of mobility. In the congested streets of Dakar, where the economic, health, and environmental costs of road transport represent between 8 and 10% of the local GDP, the question is no longer whether the country should transform its transport system, but how and at what pace.
The launch in 2024 of Africa's first 100% electric Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, with 121 articulated electric buses, an 18.3 km corridor, and a target capacity of approximately 300,000 passengers per day, marks a major turning point. This project will avoid nearly 59,000 tons of CO₂ per year, or approximately 1.8 million tons over 30 years, while significantly reducing local pollutant emissions. It demonstrates that electric mobility is neither a distant experiment nor a luxury reserved for industrialized countries, but a concrete and operational solution adapted to African realities.
This progress comes in a paradoxical context. At the very moment when Senegal is becoming a hydrocarbon producer, with nearly 50 million barrels of oil produced at Sangomar since 2024 and the start of LNG exports of 2.51 million cubic meters from Grand Tortue Ahmeyim in 2025, the country has committed, through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), to reducing its emissions by 5 to 7% by 2030, and up to 29.5% with international support. The challenge is therefore clear: to use the new resources from oil and gas not to prolong dependence on fossil fuels, but to finance and accelerate the transformation of the transport sector, responsible for approximately 35% of energy-related emissions.
The Senegalese transport system, particularly in Dakar, is under increasing pressure. The capital region concentrates nearly 24% of the national population on 0.3% of the territory, with the population growing from 3.8 million inhabitants in 2020 to nearly 7 million expected in 2040. This concentration translates into an explosion in the demand for mobility in an already saturated area.
Traffic congestion results in losses estimated at over 150 million hours each year, while air pollution from road traffic exposes 100% of Dakar's population to particulate matter levels exceeding national standards. The vehicle fleet, comprised of over 80% vehicles more than ten years old, mostly imported used cars, exacerbates this situation by increasing fuel consumption and pollutant emissions.
In this context, the transport sector is one of the main drivers of the energy transition. It remains heavily dependent on refined petroleum products, imports of which place a significant burden on the trade balance. Without structural transformation of this sector, Senegal's climate and energy objectives will remain difficult to achieve.
Electric mobility offers a dual advantage. It enables an immediate reduction in local pollutants, improving public health, and paves the way for a gradual decoupling of mobility growth from fossil fuel consumption. As the national electricity mix becomes decarbonized, with carbon intensity expected to fall from around 500 gCO₂/kWh in 2021 to less than 250 gCO₂/kWh in the medium term thanks to gas and renewables, the climate benefit of electric vehicles will increase.
The Dakar BRT illustrates a rational approach: prioritizing the electrification of high-volume, high-mileage uses. The project alone halves certain travel times, reducing them from 95 minutes to approximately 45 minutes on the Dakar–Guédiawaye axis, while simultaneously improving access to employment and services for over 60% of the metropolitan area's residents.
Its replicability also depends on its financial structure. The project, with a total cost of approximately USD 600 million, combines public investment, private capital, and concessional financing. This model demonstrates that the high initial cost of electric buses can be offset by operational savings, improved service performance, and sustainable socio-economic benefits.
Senegal's entry into the ranks of oil and gas producing countries represents a major economic turning point. However, this development raises a central strategic question: how can these resources be exploited without compromising the country's climate commitments and sustainable development trajectory?
Despite domestic hydrocarbon production, Senegal remains heavily dependent on imports of refined products for its vehicle fleet. In this context, oil and gas revenues can act as a catalyst by financing the transition to cleaner and more efficient modes of transport, rather than prolonging dependence on fossil fuels.
Natural gas, in particular, is poised to play a key role as a transitional energy source in electricity generation, reducing the use of fuel oil and diesel. As electricity becomes less carbon-intensive, the climate benefit of electric mobility increases.
The comparison with Rwanda highlights two different but complementary trajectories. Lacking fossil fuel resources, Rwanda has made electric mobility a lever for energy sovereignty, primarily targeting electric motorcycles and professional fleets through an incentive-based policy and fiscal framework. Senegal, now possessing oil and gas resources, is adopting a more structured approach, based on large-scale projects such as the electric Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system.
These two experiences show that there is no single model, but a diversity of paths towards more sustainable mobility in Africa, adapted to national contexts.
The transition to electric mobility in Senegal is no longer a hypothesis. It is already underway, driven by concrete projects, clear climate commitments, and a transformation of the energy landscape. The challenge is no longer one of feasibility, but of coherence, coordination, and speed of implementation.
Making electric mobility a pillar of the national development strategy requires clear choices: prioritizing public transport and intensive use, aligning transport, energy, and urban planning policies, leveraging hydrocarbon revenues to finance the transition, supporting local innovation, and ensuring a socially inclusive transition. Only then can electric mobility become a driver of sovereignty, competitiveness, and quality of life for Senegalese cities, and a powerful signal of climate leadership on an African scale.
In this context, oil and gas should not be seen as abandoning the transition, but as an increased responsibility. The resources they generate offer a rare opportunity to finance the infrastructure, incentives, and skills needed to sustainably transform the mobility system, prepare for a post-hydrocarbon future, and create new industrial sectors and jobs. If misused, they risk trapping the country in an outdated model.
Making electric mobility a pillar of the national development strategy therefore requires clear choices: prioritizing public transport and intensive use, aligning transport, energy, and urban planning policies, supporting local innovation, and ensuring a socially inclusive transition. With these measures in place, electric mobility can become much more than a technological solution: a lever for sovereignty, competitiveness, and quality of life for Senegalese cities, and a strong signal of climate leadership on an African scale.
The first key step is to develop and adopt a national electric mobility strategy, championed at the highest level of government. This strategy must establish a medium- and long-term vision, define quantified objectives for each segment (public transport, two-wheelers, fleets, private vehicles), and clarify the roles of the various ministries and agencies. Above all, it must ensure coherence between transport policies, energy policy, taxation, and urban planning, in order to avoid fragmented initiatives. A clear framework will provide visibility for private investors and facilitate the mobilization of technical and financial partners.
Rather than aiming for widespread and costly electrification, policymakers should focus their efforts on uses with a high environmental and socio-economic impact. This means prioritizing public transportation (urban and intercity buses, BRT), intensively used two-wheelers and tricycles (motorcycle taxis, delivery vehicles), and captive fleets (government agencies, businesses, public services). These segments offer the fastest gains in terms of emissions, pollution, and fuel consumption reductions, while also enabling more easily viable business models.
New revenues from oil and gas must be partially allocated to financing dedicated to the mobility transition. In practical terms, this could take the form of a national fund or specific budget lines designed to support the electrification of transport. These resources can be used to finance charging infrastructure, offset the initial higher cost of electric vehicles, or guarantee private investments. The goal is to transform temporary extractive revenue into sustainable investments capable of ultimately reducing the country's dependence on fossil fuels.
A clear and incentivizing tax framework is essential to trigger scaling up. Public authorities must introduce differentiated measures to support electric vehicles, including targeted exemptions from customs duties and VAT, registration incentives, and bonus schemes. At the same time, it is necessary to progressively strengthen regulations on older and more polluting internal combustion engine vehicles. From a regulatory standpoint, clear standards must be defined for vehicles, batteries, and charging equipment to secure the market and protect consumers.
Without suitable infrastructure, electric mobility will remain marginal. Decision-makers must integrate electric charging into urban and transport planning, prioritizing bus depots, multimodal hubs, public parking lots, and high-traffic areas. It is also crucial to encourage innovative business models that bring together private operators, local authorities, and electricity distributors. For two-wheelers, fast charging or battery-swapping solutions can offer appropriate responses to intensive urban use.
The transition to electric mobility is also a skills transition. It is essential to implement targeted training programs for technicians, engineers, drivers, and fleet managers. At the same time, public authorities must support the development of a local ecosystem capable of capturing some of the added value: vehicle assembly, maintenance, digital services, and fleet management. This approach will not only reduce costs but also create skilled and sustainable jobs.
The growth of electric mobility must be accompanied by rigorous anticipation of environmental impacts, particularly concerning batteries. Policymakers must define now a national framework for the collection, reuse, recycling, or controlled export of end-of-life batteries. The introduction of extended producer responsibility mechanisms will secure this sector and prevent the creation of new environmental problems, while promoting the circular economy.
Finally, no transition can succeed without the support of users and economic stakeholders. Public authorities and private operators must invest in clear and factual awareness campaigns, highlighting the tangible benefits of electric mobility: operational savings, improved air quality, comfort, and reliability. Pilot projects, such as Dakar's BRT or professional electric fleets, should be promoted as demonstration projects. The involvement of local communities, transport operators, and citizens is essential to ensure the long-term sustainability of this change.
Electric mobility is not just a technological innovation; it is a cross-cutting public policy that requires vision, coordination, and targeted investments. Senegal now has the resources, pilot projects, and African benchmarks to scale up.
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