Low trust in public institutions represents a measurable economic constraint, even if its effects are often diffuse. When government administrations, the judiciary, or official statistics are perceived as unreliable, economic actors adjust their behavior by incorporating additional institutional risk. This translates into longer investment delays, higher return requirements, and a preference for fast-moving activities over long-term, productive projects. According to the World Bank, countries in the bottom quartile of the rule of law governance indicator experienced, on average, approximately 30% lower foreign direct investment flows than higher-scoring countries over the period 2015–2023.

This lack of trust also increases transaction costs in the domestic economy. Businesses are devoting more resources to legal safeguards, the use of multiple intermediaries, or informal guarantee mechanisms.

According to the OECD, in several African economies, the costs associated with administrative procedures and regulatory uncertainty can represent between 5% and 10% of SME turnover, depending on the context, compared to less than 3% in advanced economies. This burden particularly penalizes small businesses, which are less able to absorb these fixed costs, and contributes to maintaining a high share of informal activity, estimated at around 40% of GDP in sub-Saharan Africa by the IMF in 2024.

Institutional distrust further complicates the effectiveness of public policies. When official figures are disputed or lack credibility, budgetary, fiscal, or social adjustments encounter greater resistance, even when economically justified. This lack of trust reduces tax acceptance and limits the mobilization of domestic resources, which average around 16% of GDP in the region, compared to over 25% in emerging Asian economies.

Restoring credibility requires data transparency, predictable rules, and the effective independence of regulatory institutions. These reforms, often politically invisible, nevertheless generate lasting macroeconomic gains by reducing the cost of risk and freeing up productive investment.