The rating agency Moody's will deliver its half-year verdict on France's debt on Friday, which it currently ranks one notch above its competitors, but economists are rather expecting a status quo taking into account the war in the Middle East and the improvement of the public deficit.

Moody's still classifies France among good quality debts, with a rating of Aa3, while Fitch and Standard & Poor's have only given it A+ since the autumn, which characterizes a debt of "upper medium quality".

At the end of October, however, Moody's lowered its outlook to negative, paving the way for a future downgrade.

She was referring to "the fragmentation of the French political landscape" which prevents vigorous measures from being taken to reduce the debt — the largest in mass in the euro zone, and the third largest in percentage behind those of Greece and Italy — and the public deficit, the largest in the euro zone.

"Logically," Eric Dor, director of economic studies at Ieseg, told AFP, Moody's will lower its rating on Friday, especially since the war could cause a slowdown that is unfavorable to public finances.

The Bank of France recently lowered its growth forecast for 2026 from 1% to 0.9%, and INSEE reduced its forecasts for each of the first two quarters to 0.2% instead of 0.3%.

"Somewhat clear"

Mr. Dor also considers it "absurd" that Moody's still ranks countries like Spain and Portugal three notches below France, when their public finances are in much better condition.

But other economists believe that Moody's will this time look beyond the figures, to take into account the global economic confusion created by the war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran.

"Rating agencies like to do their work in an environment where they can see a little more clearly, which is absolutely not the case right now," notes Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie of Rexecode.

Moody's might judge "that there is no need to add fuel to the fire and a little stress on the bond markets" by lowering France's rating, also considers Paul Chollet, chief economist at Crédit Mutuel Arkéa.

Especially since the moderate but resilient growth of the French economy and the government's cautious forecasts on ten-year debt interest rates reduce the risk of a sudden deterioration in public finances, he notes.

Moody's might also be tempted to wait for the outcome of the public finance alert committee meeting on April 21, during which Bercy will unveil a possible adjustment to its macroeconomic forecasts.

Latitude

Supporters of the status quo also point to the improvement in the public deficit last year, which fell from 5.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 to 5.1%.

"Bercy has expertise in this area that is recognized by rating agencies," noted Alain Trannoy, director of studies at EHESS, on Thursday during a press meeting of the Cercle des économistes in Paris.

For now, Bercy's only ambition is to bring the deficit down to 5% of GDP this year, a very small step on the road to the promised return below 3% in 2029.

"I think we can do a little better but (Bercy) is right not to commit beyond 5% because there could be other sectors of activity to help," in the context of the war, in addition to the 70 million euros already distributed to transporters, fishermen and farmers who were victims of the rise in fuel prices, says Mr. Chollet.

The issue of political instability, which is worrying the agencies, will undoubtedly resurface "starting this summer" with preparations for a budget "that promises to be very complicated" before the 2027 presidential election, he points out. "Moody's will then have more leeway to downgrade France in the fall," he believes.

Xavier Ragot, the president of the OFCE, does not hope so. "If I were a rating agency, I would not change the rating before the presidential election and the clarification of the economic debate that it will bring," he indicated on Thursday.