Soutenabilité de la dette : « Nous avons jusqu’en mars 2026 pour éviter une impasse » (Pr Thierno Thioune)
Professor Thierno Thioune, an economist, has warned of the urgency of Senegal's budgetary situation. Speaking on RTS radio, he emphasized that the country has a limited window of opportunity to stabilize its finances. According to him, accepting a restructuring is not simply about obtaining a reprieve on debt repayment: "It primarily means losing access to the international financial market, a major risk for a country that needs regular financing to support its investments and development." He stressed the symbolic and strategic dimension of this choice, which he described as an affront to "national dignity."
The current refusal to undertake restructuring seems consistent to him, given that the state is maintaining prudent budgetary management. However, he says, the agreement with the IMF remains essential, as it acts as a crucial seal of credibility for attracting European, Asian, and international investors.
The economist emphasizes that Senegal urgently needs to rebalance its fiscal policy. The deficit, currently exceeding 7.5%, must fall below 5% by 2028. He believes this objective is achievable provided current efforts are continued, public and semi-public debt is consolidated, and sustainable fiscal discipline is implemented.
He sees the approach taken by the authorities as the beginning of a credible trajectory, but stresses that it must be maintained relentlessly to avoid having to resort to restructuring.
When questioned about the slow pace of discussions with the IMF, Thierno Thioune was unequivocal: If nothing is resolved by March 2026, the country risks a major financing crisis. Despite the pessimism expressed by some analysts, he believes Senegal still has room to adjust to meet the Fund's requirements.
He emphasizes that budgetary discipline and the mobilization of domestic revenue are two key levers. The burden of external debt remains considerable, since, according to him, one-fifth of every franc collected is currently used to repay it.
Subsidies: reform without weakening the most vulnerable.
Thierno Thioune welcomes the announced decrease in electricity prices, a logical decision given the high production costs in the sub-region. However, he criticizes the continued widespread subsidies for hydrocarbons, a mechanism that benefits both wealthy and low-income households.
He advocates a targeted approach to subsidies, emphasizing that a system focused on the 500,000 most vulnerable households would save nearly €70 billion per year, or more than €250 billion over four years. For him, streamlining spending must remain compatible with social imperatives.
Mobilizing Internal Resources: A Temporary Solution Under Constraints
The government has increased its public offerings, the latest aiming to raise 400 billion FCFA. This approach is understandable, but it has its limitations, according to the economist. Maturities are short, interest rates are high, and these funds do not always finance productive projects likely to generate a return exceeding the cost of borrowing.
He also warns against crowding out companies that, under normal circumstances, could have accessed this financing to invest and create jobs. He believes the government has no other option in the short term, but this measure will never replace a solid agreement with the IMF.
Thierno Thioune emphasizes that the ambition of a "sovereign, prosperous, and just" Senegal by 2050 cannot be realized without an immediate rebalancing of public finances. According to him, the agreement with the IMF is not simply an option, but an essential step to stabilize the economy and set the country firmly on its development path.
Commentaires (5)
Tout ça à cause de Sonko.Sa langue et son sous ventre ont coûté des centaines de milliards,et une crise aiguë au contribuable sénégalais,et 80 morts au peuple sénégalais, une véritable calamité.Si sonko va au paradis, alors tout le monde peut garder espoir.
bayyil doule domeram
Pas des centaines des milliers de milliards que nous et nos fils allons payer alors qu'on a pas vu 1 cents.
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Ce ministre avec le plus petit portefeuille est un vrai farfelu avec ses tenues bizarres.
Pourqoi ne pas dire au FMI Que sonko liars
Mor est un fils de la sieste conçu au gré du hasard sur un tas de foin.
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