The 30th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP 30, will be held from November 10 to 21, 2025, in Belém, in northern Brazil, the capital of the state of Pará in the Amazon region. During this meeting, signatory states will assess the implementation of the conventions and define new objectives.

As a prelude to this meeting, the COP 30 Leaders' Summit was held on Thursday, November 6, and Friday, November 7, bringing together 143 delegations, including 57 heads of state and 39 ministers. The meeting opened in a somber atmosphere, with representatives from the United States and India absent. It was hosted by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and participants included leaders from the G77 group, which represents most developing countries, and the European Union.

Over these two days, participants discussed crucial topics such as forests and finance, ocean protection, and the global fight against hunger. They also focused on the quadrupling of renewable fuels (Belém 4X), a just transition, and the implementation of climate and financial objectives.

With all eyes on the heads of state and government, the summit provided an opportunity to assess whether the promises of the Paris Agreement and, more recently, the Dubai Agreement, can still be kept. Here, leaders are expected to grapple with two key questions: how to bridge the ambition gap in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and how to restore confidence in climate finance amid growing frustration with delays and a lack of transparency in the disbursement of pledged funds.

One COP, several issues

COP 30 presents several challenges.

The transition : COP 30 must take a decisive step forward in relation to the 2023 Global Stocktaking Strategy (GST) adopted in Dubai, which called for a “just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” The main challenge now is to establish a credible roadmap that allows progress towards this goal without exacerbating inequalities. In Belém, the negotiations on a just transition must result in a clear set of guiding principles to ensure that all actions undertaken within this agenda are equitable, inclusive, and based on human rights.

Forests : Forests remain at the heart of Brazil’s COP 30 agenda, not only as carbon sinks but also as drivers of stability, biodiversity, and local livelihoods. Protecting them is one of the fastest and most cost-effective ways to reduce emissions: nature-based solutions could deliver up to 37% of the global reductions needed by 2030. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), proposed by the Brazilian presidency and slated for launch at the leaders’ summit, has a long-term goal of mobilizing $125 billion for forest protection, with $25 billion coming from initial sponsor capital. This fund is a results-based payment model, with a 10-year term, designed to link conservation to financial returns. Brazil is seeking political support for this fund, hoping that the money will follow. Transparency, the participation of indigenous peoples and results-based financing will be key credibility tests in Belém, and will help determine whether the world can finally make forest preservation profitable.

Finance: Climate finance will dominate in Belém, following up on the pledge made at COP 29 by developing countries to contribute at least $300 billion annually by 2035. This year, countries are expected to approve the Baku-Belém roadmap, which aims to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually by 2030. The roadmap, which is expected to be presented, must demonstrate how public funds, private capital, and innovative sources, such as taxes and reforms to multilateral banks, can bridge the gap between promises and results.

Adaptation : The issue of adaptation is emerging as a key challenge for COP 30, as negotiators are tasked with setting clearer targets for the global adaptation goal and ensuring predictable and accessible funding for adaptation and loss and damage funds. Adaptation also presents an economic opportunity: the global resilience market could reach $1.3 trillion by 2030, with investments generating four times more benefits than costs and an average annual return of 25%. However, the main challenge remains ensuring that vulnerable countries have predictable funding based on grants rather than debt-generating loans. For vulnerable states, stronger resilience policies could increase GDP by 15% by 2050, while reducing debt risks and strengthening fiscal stability.

US presence : The United States under Donald Trump has not yet confirmed its participation in COP 30, but disengaging from climate diplomacy is inconsistent with the Trump administration's recent tendency to intervene behind the scenes. In October, Washington worked behind the scenes at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to block progress toward a global agreement on carbon pricing for the shipping industry. The country is expected to remain active in multilateral forums, but with the aim of slowing down, rather than advancing, climate action.

The 10-Year Review of Paris

COP30 will also be a crucial checkpoint for global emissions reduction efforts, as the world prepares to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the landmark Paris Agreement. Investments in clean energy now outpace those in fossil fuels by a ratio of two to one, and renewables are cheaper than new coal and gas in almost every market. Yet current trajectories remain insufficient to keep the 1.5°C target within reach.

Indeed, more than 100 countries have announced new climate plans, many of which cover heavy industry and transport for the first time, but their implementation remains uneven. The lack of detail from emitters such as India, Indonesia, and the Republic of Korea, as well as repeated delays by the European Union, are also raising concerns. The recent ruling by the International Court of Justice has reaffirmed that governments have a legal obligation to protect populations from climate harm, thus transforming political commitments into matters of compliance.

In this respect, Belém will allow us to verify whether the promises made in Paris can still be translated into concrete actions in the real world, in terms of fossil fuels, finance and forests.