While Senegal faces credit rating downgrades, the Republic of Guinea is managing to stand out in this arena. Indeed, S&P Global Ratings has just upgraded the country's outlook from 'stable' to 'positive'. The rating agency also affirmed Guinea's long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings at 'B+/B', indicating a high credit risk but reflecting the country's current capacity to meet its financial commitments.

Foreign Exchange Reserves Surge

"This positive outlook reflects Guinea's rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, which provide additional buffers in a volatile macroeconomic context, rising non-mining public revenues, a strong reform momentum, and solid economic growth prospects," explains S&P Global Ratings in its bulletin reviewed by Seneweb.

Indeed, Guinea's foreign exchange reserves increased last year, reaching over $4.1 billion, compared to $1.5 billion in 2024. This accumulation "reflects the strong performance of the mining sector and significant foreign direct investment (FDI) flows related to the Simandou project," states S&P Global Ratings.

Revenues Up 46%, Robust Growth

The agency declares that Guinea's economic growth prospects remain very favorable, notably due to increased mining production. It is projected to average 9.75% over 2026-2029. In addition to these aspects, there is a 46% increase in public revenues in 2025 and the effects of GDP rebasing.

The rating agency signals that it could raise Guinea's rating, provided the country's external imbalances reduce more quickly than expected and the reform momentum continues so that the mining boom benefits the rest of the economy. "Better fiscal performance could also lead to a likely rating improvement," indicates S&P Global Ratings.

Senegal Placed "Under Surveillance"

However, not everything is rosy in Guinea's trajectory. For example, the country suffers from excessive dependence on the mining sector. This could increase long-term vulnerabilities, notes the rating agency. It also emphasizes that fluctuations in international prices and global demand could weigh on the mining sector's performance and increase volatility.

In November, Senegal saw its long-term credit rating downgraded to 'CCC+'. A rating that reflects a very high vulnerability with a strong dependence on favorable conditions. This is due to the "country's precarious debt situation." While Guinea enjoys a positive outlook, Senegal "has been placed under surveillance" by S&P Global Ratings. A situation far less favorable than that of its Guinean neighbor.

Youssouf SANE