Avec la mort de Khamenei, Poutine perd encore un allié d'envergure
Bashar al-Assad, Nicolas Maduro, Ali Khamenei: in the space of a year and a half, Vladimir Putin has lost several of his important foreign allies without the Kremlin, bogged down in its war in Ukraine, being able to do much about it.
The Russian leader on Sunday offered only a letter to express his condolences after the assassination of the Iranian supreme leader, "an outstanding statesman who made an immense personal contribution to the development of friendly relations between Russia and Iran."
Although he denounced an act of "cynical violation" of "morality and international law", Vladimir Putin and the Russian authorities have not officially announced any concrete aid to Tehran in the face of the ongoing American and Israeli strikes.
In June 2025, responding to a question from AFP during a press conference, Mr. Putin said he did not even want to "discuss" the possibility of Khamenei's murder.
On Saturday, it was Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi who took the initiative, according to Moscow, to call his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, after the bombings had begun.
According to Russian expert Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Center, Khamenei's death puts the Russian president in a "difficult situation".
Because since Donald Trump's re-election, Vladimir Putin has sought to appease the turbulent American billionaire in order to gain Washington's favor in negotiations to end the war launched by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In early January, the US kidnapping of former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro marked the loss of another of Moscow's partners. There too, the Kremlin was powerless to intervene.
"Twice in two months, Putin has failed to fulfill his role as savior," Mr. Baounov points out on his Telegram account. And, in the case of Khamenei, the expert adds, "the killer is his friend Trump."
Previously, Vladimir Putin had at least been able to help former Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovych find refuge in Russia in February 2014. He also offered asylum to Bashar al-Assad and his family after his overthrow in Syria in December 2024.
Unlike the Maduro case, Khamenei's death took place in a part of the world that Russia considers its "hemisphere", Mr. Baounov believes.
The expert compares this assassination to that of Libyan and Kremlin ally Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, which, according to Mr. Baounov, marked "a turning point in Russian policy" and one of Vladimir Putin's justifications for "breaking with the West".
Tehran has remained one of Russia's closest allies and supporters throughout the offensive launched by Moscow against Ukraine in 2022.
Kyiv and the West accuse Tehran of supplying Russia with weapons and military technologies, such as the Iranian-designed Shahed drones, which Moscow now produces in large quantities and uses daily to bomb Ukraine.
In 2025, Russia and Iran also signed a strategic partnership treaty aimed at strengthening their ties — including in the military field.
Besides the loss of an important ally in Ali Khamenei, the consequences for Moscow of the ongoing conflict in Iran are still difficult to assess.
Russian MP Anatoly Vasserman, interviewed by the Russian media outlet MK.ru, asserted that the war could benefit Russia in the short term if it leads to a sharp rise in oil prices, and pose "major problems" in the longer term for the United States and Israel if the Iranian authorities "resist".
For its part, Kyiv logically welcomed the assassination of the Iranian leader.
For Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga, his death shows that Russia is not a "reliable partner even for those who rely on it heavily" and that it is losing influence because of its "senseless war against Ukraine".
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