La vérité derrière le revirement de Trump: “C’est une stratégie de désespoir”
After issuing an uncompromising ultimatum to Iran, Donald Trump suddenly changed his tune, mentioning “constructive discussions” and granting a five-day grace period. Stock markets breathed a sigh of relief, but Tehran denies everything and claims manipulation. What is really going on? Roger Housen, a defense expert and former colonel, attempts to analyze the situation.
After issuing an uncompromising ultimatum to Iran, Donald Trump suddenly changed his tune, mentioning “constructive discussions” and granting a five-day grace period. Stock markets breathed a sigh of relief, but Tehran denies everything and claims manipulation. What is really going on? Roger Housen, a defense expert and former colonel, attempts to analyze the situation.
“After the ultimatum he issued last weekend, global stock markets plummeted. Oil and gas prices skyrocketed. By claiming that the 'discussions are going well,' he is reassuring the markets. This isn't diplomacy; it's crisis management for his own economy. He's only buying himself five more days.”
“This uranium is the Iranian regime’s life insurance. To claim they would get rid of it so easily is an urban legend. It’s comparable to Trump’s claim that he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours: it’s baseless. They’re not going to abandon their nuclear program just like that, especially when their leaders have been eliminated and their energy and government infrastructure is collapsing. On the contrary: they know very well that with the Strait of Hormuz, they can economically strangle the world. This will lead them to make extremely high demands if negotiations ever actually begin. Tehran will demand reparations and a guarantee that it will never be attacked again. This is completely unacceptable to Israel. The positions are so far apart that a quick agreement is an illusion.”
“Absolutely not. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will not deviate from his hard line. For him, the Tehran regime must disappear completely. Israel wants to put an end to their military and nuclear threat once and for all. A ceasefire today would mean that Iran would remain a major power equipped with deadly missiles and drones, with a regime capable of holding the global market hostage at any moment. For Netanyahu, this is not a solution, but a defeat.”
“I expect the war to last for many more days. If the United States withdraws now, America will have lost. Because Iran will remain a military power, the regime will remain in place, and they will retain control of the Strait of Hormuz. That is the sad reality. The United States will therefore probably continue the bombing in the coming days, even if it costs a billion dollars a day. The only other option would be to send ground troops, but that would become a quagmire. However, I don't dare project beyond five days with Trump; he makes contradictory statements every other day. It's the strategy of hoping—or rather, despairing—that some unexpected event will end this war.”
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