Les hydrocarbures s'envolent après des attaques contre des sites énergétiques du Golfe
The conflict, triggered by Israeli-American strikes on Iran in late February, appears to be entering a new phase, massively targeting production sites, in addition to the storage and transport of oil and gas.
Late this morning, the price of Brent crude from the North Sea was up nearly 7% at $114.64 a barrel, shortly after climbing more than 10%. European gas prices soared (up to +35%). European stock markets, however, were trading sharply lower: Frankfurt fell by 2.43%, as did London (-2%) and Milan (-2.34%).
A drone crashed Thursday morning into the Saudi Samref refinery, located in the Yanbu industrial zone on the Red Sea coast. "Damage assessment is underway," the Saudi Ministry of Defense stated.
Overnight, following initial strikes on Wednesday, Qatar reported an Iranian attack on Ras Laffan, its primary liquefied natural gas (LNG) production site. The emirate's state-owned energy company, QatarEnergy, reported "considerable damage."
The fires were brought under control early in the morning, according to the Ministry of the Interior of the country, the world's second largest exporter of LNG.
These attacks are a response to those the previous day against the South Pars/North Dome site, the world's largest known gas reserve, shared by Tehran and Doha.
The US president confirmed on his Truth Social platform that Israel was behind the attack on the Iranian part of this offshore gas site in the Gulf, and seemed to want to distance himself from the operation.
"Israel, in a fit of anger (...), violently struck" the South Pars gas field. "The United States knew nothing about this attack and Qatar was not involved in it in any way."
"No further attacks will be carried out by Israel," he asserted. But if Iran "recklessly decides to attack a completely innocent country, namely Qatar," then "the United States, with or without the aid or consent of Israel, will massively destroy the entire oil field."
In Kuwait, the Mina Abdullah and Mina Al-Ahmadi refineries were targeted by drone attacks, according to the Kuwaiti Ministry of Information.
If other infrastructure is targeted, the barrel "would probably exceed $120 in the immediate future, with the potential for further increases depending on the severity of the damage," estimates Aditya Saraswat, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking in Brussels, denounced an "unthinkable escalation," calling for "direct" discussions between Americans and Iranians on this issue.
After the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday, soaring energy prices will dominate the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday.
On the 20th day of the war, Iran demonstrates that it retains a significant strike capability, despite Israeli-American attacks on its military installations.
"The Iranian regime is intact," US intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard assured the US Congress. But it is "significantly weakened due to attacks targeting its leadership and military capabilities."
"The conflict is drifting towards a war of attrition — with no clear sign of regime collapse in Iran," analyzes Dennis Citrinowicz, an expert at the National Institute for Security Studies in Tel Aviv, on X.
Tehran "has once again demonstrated that it would not hesitate to increase the level of escalation to defend its strategic assets — without backing down in the slightest on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz."
A fifth of the world's oil and gas normally flows through the valuable passage, which is de facto blocked by Iran and in which many ships have been targeted since the beginning of the war.
Meeting in emergency session in London, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is expected to call on Thursday for the establishment of a safe corridor to evacuate ships stranded in the Gulf. According to the IMO, 20,000 seafarers are currently waiting aboard 3,200 vessels near the Strait of Gibraltar.
In the Gulf, the monarchies have raised their voices.
Qatar deplored that the attacks in the region "crossed all red lines by targeting civilians, civilian and vital facilities".
Saudi Arabia, for its part, said it "reserves the right" to respond militarily to Iran.
On Thursday, however, in the Iranian capital, almost nothing suggested a country mired in war.
On the eve of Nowruz, the Persian New Year usually celebrated with festivities, the city center was, as usual, invaded by traffic jams as well as street vendors haggling over the price of clothes and fruit.
But the presence of security forces was greater than usual, with heavily armed men on some major roads and an increased number of armored vehicles.
Despite the deaths of several high-ranking officials in Israeli airstrikes, the Islamic Republic maintains an iron grip on the domestic situation.
Iran announced on Thursday the execution of three "rioters" found guilty of murdering members of the security forces and of acting on behalf of Israel and the United States.
These are the first officially announced executions in connection with the protests that broke out in late December in the country against the high cost of living, before turning into a vast protest movement against the government.
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