The far right is gaining momentum, the radical left is making a breakthrough: the two parties, which have made the municipal elections in France a test ahead of the 2027 presidential election, emerge strengthened from the first round on Sunday, in an election which generally sees the left maintain its position, particularly in Paris.

The French far-right party National Rally (RN) came out on top in several cities and the radical left-wing party LFI caused a surprise in others.

But in France's two largest cities, the incumbent left is performing well. In Paris, the Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire is well ahead of the former right-wing minister Rachida Dati. And in Marseille, the mayor, Benoît Payan, who is close to the Socialist Party, is in first place, although closely followed by the National Rally MP Franck Allisio.

"Next Sunday, the right and the far right could win in Paris," warned Mr. Grégoire, calling on "all voters of the republican camp, of the camp of progress, whatever their choice this Sunday, to support the list we are putting forward" in the second round.

The capital is heading towards a five-way runoff with Emmanuel Grégoire (37.98%), his right-wing rival Rachida Dati (25.46%), Sophia Chikirou (LFI, radical left, 11.72%), the centrist Pierre-Yves Bournazel (11.34%) and the far-right MEP Sarah Knafo (Reconquête!, 10.40%), according to the almost complete results released by the City.

The National Rally (RN), seeking to build momentum ahead of 2027, has claimed the re-election of several incumbent mayors in the first round. Its leader, Marine Le Pen, a three-time presidential candidate, welcomed her party's "real chances of victory" in the second round on March 22 in several cities.

The far-right party sees these local elections as a first step towards its possible accession to power in 2027 after two consecutive terms of Emmanuel Macron in a political landscape fragmented between three major blocs, left, centre-right and far-right, with strong divisions within the left and the right.

The far right intends to supplant the right wing in certain areas or break down a cordon sanitaire and draw it into an alliance, also with an eye toward 2027. Still relatively unestablished locally, the National Rally (RN) wants to capitalize on its national momentum to win over cities. It has fielded a record number of lists, at least 650 out of a total of some 35,000 municipalities.

At the other end of the political spectrum, LFI (radical left) made a sensation in several cities: In Lille (north), where the socialist mayor Arnaud Deslandes, heir of the former minister Martine Aubry, is neck and neck around 25% with the LFI candidate Lahouaria Addouche, well above the predictions.

The leader of La France insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, celebrated on Sunday a "historic breakthrough" for his movement, which is in a position to win cities or play kingmaker in the second round.

The time for alliances

The progress of the two movements, which had sought to make this municipal campaign a giant test for the 2027 presidential election, suggests difficult negotiations between now and the filing of lists for Sunday's second round.

In many cities, the question of alliances will be scrutinized: the qualified lead candidates have until Tuesday to decide whether they maintain, merge or withdraw.

The Socialist Party, which is holding its ground in many major cities and is also leading by a wide margin in Rennes, Strasbourg, and Montpellier, wants to break definitively with La France Insoumise (LFI). But the strong showing of LFI complicates the equation in several elections.

LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard has "extended a hand" to other left-wing lists "wherever the right and the far right pose a threat".

"Large gathering on the right"

Another key election thirteen months before the presidential election is that of Le Havre, where former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe is well positioned, having made his re-election a prerequisite for pursuing his candidacy for the Élysée.

In Nice, the duel between the incumbent Christian Estrosi and Eric Ciotti, an ally of the RN, is turning in favour of the latter, with a lead of around ten points.

Voter turnout continued to decline on Sunday in an election that traditionally captures the interest of the French. Polling institutes predict a turnout of between 56% and 58.5%, compared to 63.55% in 2014, continuing a downward trend observed for over 40 years, particularly among young people and in working-class neighborhoods. Turnout was only lower in 2020, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mobilization may have been hampered by the end of the campaign being overshadowed by the war in the Middle East.