Pourquoi la guerre au Moyen-Orient a renforcé le dollar
The surge in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East has significantly strengthened the dollar against other currencies, paradoxically risking undermining Donald Trump's economic objectives.
- The dollar, king of oil -
From the start of the conflict almost two weeks ago, investors massively sold their assets to turn to energy in anticipation of a supply crisis, and to the dollar, the currency in which oil and many energy products are denominated.
The attacks on Gulf infrastructure and the blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz then caused the price of a barrel of Brent, the world's benchmark crude, to rise by more than a third, now trading around $100.
With more dollars needed to buy these raw materials, the greenback has appreciated by about 2.5% since the start of hostilities, according to the Dollar Index, which compares the US currency to a basket of major currencies.
Particularly liquid (i.e., quickly available and exchangeable), currency also remains a leading safe haven, favored in international trade and central bank foreign exchange reserves.
- The United States spared -
The United States, the world's largest oil producer, buys only about 8% of its crude oil imports from the Gulf, compared to nearly two-thirds from Canada, according to the latest figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, published in December 2025.
They are therefore spared from the supply crisis that is shaking the region.
Since the country is also a net exporter of refined petroleum products and gas, rising oil prices tend to strengthen its currency, whereas they used to weigh on the US trade balance at a time when the country imported more oil.
At the same time, European and Asian economies are suffering more from this crisis, making their currencies and bonds comparatively less attractive.
- Risks to inflation -
With soaring energy prices, the risk of renewed inflation is increasing in the United States. The market therefore believes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could slow the pace of its rate cuts, or even consider raising its key interest rate again.
However, high interest rates increase the attractiveness of the US dollar, to the detriment of gold, another traditional safe haven, which does not yield any return.
The dollar has not yet recovered to its pre-Trump second-term levels. It remains weighed down by concerns about the impact of tariffs on the US economy, as well as by fears surrounding US debt and pressure on the independence of its institutions.
"The prolongation of the conflict could diminish the appeal" of the greenback, Kathleen Brooks, an analyst for XTB, told AFP. According to her, the United States' "considerable budget deficit" risks "worsening with the war" and increased military spending.
- A paradox for Trump -
The evolution of the markets since the beginning of the conflict runs counter to the objectives initially stated by the American president.
Donald Trump had indeed pledged to lower prices at the pump and still recently believed that a weak dollar supports exports.
When questioned at the end of January about the downward trajectory of his national currency, the American president ultimately found it "terrific", believing that "the dollar is doing very well".
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had subsequently asserted that Washington was pursuing "a policy in favor of a strong dollar".
"The administration's position on the dollar is confused, muddled and inconsistent," said Mark Sobel, a former senior official at the US Treasury, interviewed by AFP.
In any case, the US administration's "priority of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons or missiles seems to take precedence over the short-term impact on the foreign exchange market," says Marc Chandler, Forex analyst for Bannockburn Capital Markets.
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