AFCON 2025: Who is the favorite to win the tournament? What...

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AFCON 2025: Who is the favorite to win the tournament? What the simulations say before the start of the Round of 16

Auteur: RMC Sport

il y a 2 jours 13762 Lectures 6 Commentaires | Français

CAN 2025: Qui est le favori pour la victoire finale? Ce que disent les simulations avant le début des 8es

Several websites and platforms specializing in statistical data have delivered their predictions for the title before the start of the round of 16 of the 2025 AFCON. Morocco is still considered the favorite, but several challengers are lying in wait.

It seems the 3-0 thrashing of Zambia to conclude the group stage didn't just reassure the fans; it also impressed the "supercomputers." While Morocco – aiming for their first title since 1976 – appeared a bit sluggish in their first two matches of "their" 2025 AFCON, the Atlas Lions remain the overwhelming favorites to win the tournament, according to the various scenarios proposed by specialist websites.

As the Round of 16 kicks off this Saturday, Opta and Football Meets Data have updated their predictions, based on thousands of computer simulations. And on both sides, Walid Regragui's men are the most likely to emerge victorious. Opta predicts Morocco – despite a challenging draw – will win the Africa Cup of Nations in 22.82% of scenarios. Football Meets Data's prediction climbs even higher, reaching 43%, or nearly one in two.

🏆 Final standings for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations

Algeria, the main challenger on one side, and Senegal on the other.

And what about the others? The two statisticians don't entirely agree on the identity and chances of the main challengers. According to Opta, Algeria, Senegal, and Egypt are neck and neck, with a 13% chance according to simulations, compared to 10% for Nigeria, 7% for Ivory Coast, and around 5% for Cameroon.

According to Football Meets Data, Senegal is a solid second favorite (20%), well ahead of Algeria with 8%, while Nigeria, Egypt, Ivory Coast or DRC are at 4% or 5%.

The two platforms agree on one point, however: it would take a miracle for Tanzania, Mozambique, Sudan or Benin, who will also be competing in the round of 16, to go all the way in the tournament.

The favorites to win the final according to Opta's predictions

Morocco, 22.82%
Algeria, 13.64%
Senegal, 13.62%
Egypt, 13.26%
Nigeria, 10.09%
Ivory Coast, 7.45%
Cameroon, 4.98%
Mali, 3.86%
Tunisia, 3.54%
DR Congo, 2.05%

The favorites to win the final according to Football Meets Data predictions

Morocco, 40%
Senegal, 20%
Algeria, 8%
Nigeria, 5%
Egypt, 5%
Ivory Coast, 4%
DR Congo, 4%
Tunisia, 3%
Mali, 3%
Burkina Faso, 2%

The round of 16 of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations will be played in Morocco from January 3 to 6, 2026. The final will take place on January 18, 2026.

Auteur: RMC Sport
Publié le: Samedi 03 Janvier 2026

Commentaires (6)

Egypte il y a 2 jours

Selon moi Egypte ou Algérie
Répondre à Egypte
Défenseur il y a 2 jours

N'importe quoi ! Que toutes ces équipes se méfient du Congo.
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Cimonta il y a 1 jour

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Adunia il y a 1 jour

Le Mali est à son 4eme match nul mais au vu de ce qu'il a montré contre la Tunisie, aujourd'hui les Aigles ont été plus convaincants que nos Lions.
Donc attention attention attention
Répondre à Adunia
anonym il y a 1 jour

,les miliens ont reussit une prouesse les equipes naars en general savent tres bien garder un score donc si le Mali l'a reussit cela montre qu'ils ont du caractere ce quart de finale risque de determiner le futur vainqueur.
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