Given the delicate geopolitical context involving Iran and the United States, Iran's participation in the next World Cup could be jeopardized. The question of which nation would be replaced in the event of a withdrawal arises...

With just over three months to go before the start of the 2026 World Cup, a question is beginning to circulate behind the scenes: what would happen if the Iranian national team ultimately decided to withdraw due to current geopolitical tensions? For now, neither FIFA nor the Iranian federation has mentioned such a possibility. But internally, the scenario is very much on everyone's mind.

Iran is scheduled to play all of its group matches in the United States starting June 11. Should it withdraw, Article 6.7 of the regulations would apply: "If a participating member association withdraws and/or is excluded from the FIFA World Cup, FIFA shall decide the matter at its sole discretion (...) FIFA may decide to replace the participating member association in question with another association."

What are the options?

In other words, the world governing body has a free hand. It has two main options: draft another nation or maintain a three-team group. Contrary to some rumors, the loser of the March playoffs would not be automatically designated. Everything would depend on the schedule. If a team were to withdraw before these playoffs, it would make sense for the replacement to come from this mini-tournament.

However, just a few weeks before the World Cup, the situation would be entirely different. Organizing the arrival of a national team at short notice—visas, travel, accommodation, security—in a competition expanded to 48 teams would be a logistical nightmare. The possibility of an Asian country, a member of the Asian Football Confederation, would seem logical from a sporting perspective, but FIFA would be under no obligation to pursue this course of action.

The remaining option is a three-team group. While questionable from a sporting perspective and risky economically, it would mean fewer matches and therefore a significant loss of revenue. It's difficult to imagine FIFA canceling matches without financial repercussions.

Finally, point 6.5 of the regulations refers to "force majeure," again leaving the organizing body with complete freedom of interpretation. This unprecedented situation at this level of modern competition presents FIFA with a challenge that is both sensitive and complex.