Mondial 2026 : l’Italie peut-elle rêver d’un repêchage en cas de forfait de l’Iran ?
Can the supporters of the Squadra Azzurra still harbor a slim hope of seeing their national team compete in the next World Cup?
Despite their elimination, Italy may not have completely given up on the 2026 World Cup, scheduled to take place from June 11 to July 19 in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Indeed, a major geopolitical upheaval could reshuffle the cards. The situation directly concerns Iran, whose participation remains uncertain amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, marked by military strikes involving, among others, the United States and Israel.
Should the Iranian federation decide to withdraw, particularly if it refuses to relocate its matches, a place would become available in the final tournament. According to FIFA regulations, the choice of replacement would then fall to the world football governing body.
In this context, Italy, currently well-ranked globally, could appear as a credible candidate to secure this unexpected spot. However, some voices advocate for a "geographic" replacement, favoring another Asian team to maintain the balance of the confederations. Among the options mentioned, the United Arab Emirates is frequently cited.
Another option, revealed by The Athletic, is also gaining traction. It would involve organizing a last-minute intercontinental playoff between teams that did not qualify, including two Asian (AFC) and two European (UEFA) teams. This mini-tournament would determine Iran's replacement for the group stage. In such a scenario, Italy would logically be invited due to its higher ranking among the eliminated nations.
This type of solution is not unprecedented. During the last Club World Cup, a playoff was held to determine the replacement for Club León, which was excluded for failing to comply with the rules regarding multi-ownership clubs. Los Angeles FC then defeated Club América to secure their place.
However, the schedule works against such a scenario. FIFA regulations stipulate heavy financial penalties for any team withdrawing less than thirty days before its first match. A decision should therefore be made quickly, probably before mid-May.
Meanwhile, Italy is observing the situation cautiously, hanging on to an improbable geopolitical equation that could transform an announced absence into an unexpected qualification for the North American World Cup.
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